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The 1.9 percent December year-over-year rise in the core personal consumption expenditure index reflects a stable and modest inflation rate. That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The 1.9 percent December year-over-year rise in the core personal consumption expenditure index reflects a stable and modest inflation rate. That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.

Whether you look at the core personal consumption expenditure index on a monthly basis or a year over year basis, the inflation trend is basically 'steady Eddie. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

Whether you look at the core personal consumption expenditure index on a monthly basis or a year over year basis, the inflation trend is basically 'steady Eddie.

This index is designed so that readings over 50 point to expanding activity in the Midwest factory sector. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

This index is designed so that readings over 50 point to expanding activity in the Midwest factory sector.

Initial claims were significantly better than the expected 300,000, and they were well within the range we would expect in a solid job market. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

Initial claims were significantly better than the expected 300,000, and they were well within the range we would expect in a solid job market.

This is consistent with our view that the housing market is likely to continue to moderate in the coming months. But ... home sales are historically pretty strong. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

This is consistent with our view that the housing market is likely to continue to moderate in the coming months. But ... home sales are historically pretty strong.

The housing starts figure coming in down 5.6 percent was weaker than expected and seems consistent with our thesis that the housing sector is moderating. The big decline in housing permits reinforces that idea. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The housing starts figure coming in down 5.6 percent was weaker than expected and seems consistent with our thesis that the housing sector is moderating. The big decline in housing permits reinforces that idea.

The narrower trade deficit is a positive piece of news for February. However, with energy prices going up recently, you have to remember that there's a good chance that the trade deficit will widen again over the next (few) months. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The narrower trade deficit is a positive piece of news for February. However, with energy prices going up recently, you have to remember that there's a good chance that the trade deficit will widen again over the next (few) months.

We did have a modest upward revision in the previous week's claims, but we remain under the psychologically important 400,000 level and that's definitely something that we've been looking for. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

We did have a modest upward revision in the previous week's claims, but we remain under the psychologically important 400,000 level and that's definitely something that we've been looking for.

The drop in jobless claims is a darn good number. A number in the range of 325,000 to 350,000 is a level that is more consistent with healthy economic growth. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The drop in jobless claims is a darn good number. A number in the range of 325,000 to 350,000 is a level that is more consistent with healthy economic growth.

The drop in jobless claims is a darn good number. A number in the range of 325,000 to 350,000 is a level that is more consistent with healthy economic growth, - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The drop in jobless claims is a darn good number. A number in the range of 325,000 to 350,000 is a level that is more consistent with healthy economic growth,

All kinds of indicators point to a very good report on April employment ... with jobless claims figures coming in where they are and the consumer confidence indicators ... all point to solid job creation. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

All kinds of indicators point to a very good report on April employment ... with jobless claims figures coming in where they are and the consumer confidence indicators ... all point to solid job creation.

Spending was up, a little weaker than expected... Nevertheless, the trend has been upward and it looks like the consumer is still in the ballgame in terms of supporting economic growth. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

Spending was up, a little weaker than expected... Nevertheless, the trend has been upward and it looks like the consumer is still in the ballgame in terms of supporting economic growth.

Even though that was an 11,000 increase, you have to say claims remain relatively low and certainly in the range we would expect in a strong labor market. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

Even though that was an 11,000 increase, you have to say claims remain relatively low and certainly in the range we would expect in a strong labor market.

It's a good sign that the consumer has some momentum going into the start of the year and that probably reflects the fact that the labor market is continuing to improve, albeit modestly. It's a positive for economic growth this year. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

It's a good sign that the consumer has some momentum going into the start of the year and that probably reflects the fact that the labor market is continuing to improve, albeit modestly. It's a positive for economic growth this year.

If the core rate doesn't get out of hand and growth comes in moderate, at some point fairly soon the Fed could decide ... to stop raising rates. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

If the core rate doesn't get out of hand and growth comes in moderate, at some point fairly soon the Fed could decide ... to stop raising rates.

The good news is that this is much more moderate than we had seen in September and August and it brings the annual inflation rate down to 4.3 percent. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The good news is that this is much more moderate than we had seen in September and August and it brings the annual inflation rate down to 4.3 percent.

News

It could mean that those people don't show up in the jobless numbers until relatively late, so it's an evolving situations in terms of understanding the impact on the labor market. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

It could mean that those people don't show up in the jobless numbers until relatively late, so it's an evolving situations in terms of understanding the impact on the labor market.

We're getting close to the weekly level of new claims that was typical of the months leading up to the late-summer hurricanes and the spike in energy prices. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

We're getting close to the weekly level of new claims that was typical of the months leading up to the late-summer hurricanes and the spike in energy prices.

There was decent strength across the retail sector. These numbers are consistent with an economy growing at a comfortable rate, a pace that would allow the Fed to continue to raise interest rates in a measured fashion. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

There was decent strength across the retail sector. These numbers are consistent with an economy growing at a comfortable rate, a pace that would allow the Fed to continue to raise interest rates in a measured fashion.

It's an encouraging sign, but of course we have a long way to go before you would say that the consumer is very optimistic. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

It's an encouraging sign, but of course we have a long way to go before you would say that the consumer is very optimistic.

The survey for the final reading would have taken place over the past 10 days or so, when market volatility was particularly high, ... Because of that, the final reading very well could have come in below the preliminary reading. The fact it came in higher shows a certain amount of resilience in the consumer sector. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The survey for the final reading would have taken place over the past 10 days or so, when market volatility was particularly high, ... Because of that, the final reading very well could have come in below the preliminary reading. The fact it came in higher shows a certain amount of resilience in the consumer sector.

Past

The drop in continuing claims could be a sign that the unemployment rate could start drifting downward. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The drop in continuing claims could be a sign that the unemployment rate could start drifting downward.

The positive message is that if you strip out the numbers that the Labor Department says are the result of the hurricane, the underlying figures are still pretty decent. That shows that there was some cushion in the economy before Katrina hit. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The positive message is that if you strip out the numbers that the Labor Department says are the result of the hurricane, the underlying figures are still pretty decent. That shows that there was some cushion in the economy before Katrina hit.

Labor

We've now had three straight quarters of above-average growth, and that's nothing to sneeze at. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

We've now had three straight quarters of above-average growth, and that's nothing to sneeze at.

The numbers are still quite healthy, they're still well within the range you would expect in a period of high demand for labor. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The numbers are still quite healthy, they're still well within the range you would expect in a period of high demand for labor.

The fact that (core inflation) has been on a downward trend for two months is more evidence that Fed policy-makers might stop raising interest rates sooner rather than later. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The fact that (core inflation) has been on a downward trend for two months is more evidence that Fed policy-makers might stop raising interest rates sooner rather than later.

It seems like this is a conspiracy by the gods to make us economists eat our words when we said manufacturing was back on its feet. It's certainly a disappointing number. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

It seems like this is a conspiracy by the gods to make us economists eat our words when we said manufacturing was back on its feet. It's certainly a disappointing number.

It could be this reflects the recent rebound in energy prices that possibly made people a little more cautious again. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

It could be this reflects the recent rebound in energy prices that possibly made people a little more cautious again.

We still think that the growth rate will slow substantially in the fourth quarter, in part because the housing sector is softening which will tend to soften consumer spending as well. That is one factor that will probably help the Federal Reserve eventually conclude its monetary tightening cycle. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

We still think that the growth rate will slow substantially in the fourth quarter, in part because the housing sector is softening which will tend to soften consumer spending as well. That is one factor that will probably help the Federal Reserve eventually conclude its monetary tightening cycle.

The service sector of the economy is still growing at a good pace and that is consistent with what we were seeing in the employment report for November. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The service sector of the economy is still growing at a good pace and that is consistent with what we were seeing in the employment report for November.

The core PCE price index is a calming influence on the bond market, ... Inflation so far has far not gotten out of hand. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The core PCE price index is a calming influence on the bond market, ... Inflation so far has far not gotten out of hand.

It was a little weaker than expected but still a pretty decent number, ... In fact, the August (housing start) figure was revised up to 2.02 million, and that's a new peak for this economic cycle. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

It was a little weaker than expected but still a pretty decent number, ... In fact, the August (housing start) figure was revised up to 2.02 million, and that's a new peak for this economic cycle.

It's certainly lower than expectations so in that sense it was a disappointment, but the key thing is that this is still appreciably better as a growth rate than the long-term average, which is only about 3 percent, - Patrick Fearon Quotes

It's certainly lower than expectations so in that sense it was a disappointment, but the key thing is that this is still appreciably better as a growth rate than the long-term average, which is only about 3 percent,

It looks like the potential disruption has helped to further boost gasoline prices and that could be some additional headwind for the economy, - Patrick Fearon Quotes

It looks like the potential disruption has helped to further boost gasoline prices and that could be some additional headwind for the economy,

It looks like the potential disruption has helped to further boost gasoline prices and that could be some additional headwind for the economy. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

It looks like the potential disruption has helped to further boost gasoline prices and that could be some additional headwind for the economy.

It was a little weaker than expected but still a pretty decent number. In fact, the August (housing start) figure was revised up to 2.02 million, and that's a new peak for this economic cycle. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

It was a little weaker than expected but still a pretty decent number. In fact, the August (housing start) figure was revised up to 2.02 million, and that's a new peak for this economic cycle.

The core PCE price index is a calming influence on the bond market. Inflation so far has far not gotten out of hand. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The core PCE price index is a calming influence on the bond market. Inflation so far has far not gotten out of hand.

This shows some strength in the consumer sector at the end of the year. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

This shows some strength in the consumer sector at the end of the year.

That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.

The ISM manufacturing index came in at a decent level in January, just slightly below expectations, but still high enough to suggest that the manufacturing sector is expanding at a steady-as-she-goes pace. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The ISM manufacturing index came in at a decent level in January, just slightly below expectations, but still high enough to suggest that the manufacturing sector is expanding at a steady-as-she-goes pace.

There was some slacking off in the fourth quarter, but I didn't think it would affect the whole country. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

There was some slacking off in the fourth quarter, but I didn't think it would affect the whole country.

It looks like warm weather had a big impact so the big jump in January housing starts can be attributed to that. However, the moderating trend in housing really is still in place. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

It looks like warm weather had a big impact so the big jump in January housing starts can be attributed to that. However, the moderating trend in housing really is still in place.

This could be a temporary blip. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

This could be a temporary blip.

So despite the indicator today, the report for February might not be quite as strong as this is suggesting. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

So despite the indicator today, the report for February might not be quite as strong as this is suggesting.

This level still looks like companies are happy with their current work force, and they are being relatively stingy about keeping their workers -- they don't seem to want to lose too many. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

This level still looks like companies are happy with their current work force, and they are being relatively stingy about keeping their workers -- they don't seem to want to lose too many.

Force

People who are unemployed are finding it relatively easier to find jobs. All around, it's a pretty good situation for the labor market. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

People who are unemployed are finding it relatively easier to find jobs. All around, it's a pretty good situation for the labor market.

Jobs

The ISM index shows that the service side of the economy continues to grow well and that's important because that sector makes up the large majority of the economy. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The ISM index shows that the service side of the economy continues to grow well and that's important because that sector makes up the large majority of the economy.

The trend in general for the last several months has been in this ballpark, with initial claims being really pretty low compared with the size of the workforce and the size of the economy. So for some time, jobless claims have been and indicator that the labor market remains healthy and March payrolls probably will remain pretty healthy as well. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The trend in general for the last several months has been in this ballpark, with initial claims being really pretty low compared with the size of the workforce and the size of the economy. So for some time, jobless claims have been and indicator that the labor market remains healthy and March payrolls probably will remain pretty healthy as well.

The labor market has been strengthening for a while, but it may be that people are finally starting to become believers in it. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

The labor market has been strengthening for a while, but it may be that people are finally starting to become believers in it.

Labor

With energy prices at least roughly flattening out, and with the labor market continuing to strengthen, those are probably two of the main reasons people are starting to get more optimistic. - Patrick Fearon Quotes

With energy prices at least roughly flattening out, and with the labor market continuing to strengthen, those are probably two of the main reasons people are starting to get more optimistic.

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